Revenue and customers
Marketing Mix Modeling
A Bayesian model of weekly spend, sales, and promotions estimates each channel's incremental return and response curve, and geo or holdout tests confirm it before any saving is claimed.
The problem
Attribution credits the last touch, so channels that build demand look weak and channels that harvest it look strong. Budgets follow those numbers, and there is no clear way to know what an extra unit of spend in a channel would return.
Who owns it
The CMO, with finance as co-owner of the budget and the return definition.
What it learns from
- Several years of weekly spend by channel
- Weekly sales
- Promotions and pricing
- Seasonality, events, and other outside factors
- Geo or holdout test results
How it works
Predict, decide, act, measure
The same four steps in every solution, in this order, each one visible to the team that owns it.
- 01
Estimates incremental return and response curves
A Bayesian model estimates each channel's incremental contribution to sales, with uncertainty, and its response curve: how returns change as spend rises. It uses aggregate data, not individual tracking.
- 02
Decides the reallocation within limits
Budget is reallocated toward channels with higher marginal return, within minimums, maximums, and change limits the marketing team sets. A channel whose estimate is too uncertain gets a test before more money moves.
- 03
Acts in the budget plan
The recommended allocation, with its expected effect and uncertainty, goes to the marketing plan and to finance planning. People make the change.
- 04
Measures with geo or holdout tests
Geo or holdout tests validate the model's estimates before any saving is claimed, and their results feed back into the model.
What it moves
The business levers
Budget efficiency
Spend moved toward the channels that return more at the margin.
Cost per acquisition
Lower cost to acquire a customer from the same budget.
Planning confidence
Budgets set from response curves with stated uncertainty.
Privacy-light measurement
Measurement that does not depend on tracking individuals.
Proof
How the return is proven
The return is the incremental return per channel and the change in cost per acquisition after reallocation, confirmed by geo or holdout tests and stated against the return model agreed up front.
What you see: the ROI readout
Every solution produces the same readout, assembled from the system's own records rather than built by hand.
Correctness
The checks the pipeline passed on your own data: leakage, point-in-time, and entity resolution.
Incrementality
The incremental effect against the holdout or equivalent design, with its confidence interval.
Return
The measured return against the investment, set beside the return model agreed before work started.
Guardrails
Complaints, cost, margin, fairness, and contact limits, each shown against its bounds.
Audit extract
Every score, action, and outcome, with the model and policy versions behind it.
Governance
What is governed
Access, approvals, and the audit trail are part of the solution, not a review step added at the end.
Identity-scoped access
Spend, sales, and model results are visible by role through your single sign-on.
Approval gates
Budget moves beyond the agreed limits need marketing and finance approval.
Audit trail
Every model version, recommendation, and test result is logged.
Aggregate data and GDPR
The model uses aggregate weekly data, so no personal data is needed; where test audiences are built, consent and GDPR rules apply.
Why it holds up
Trained on your data, framed by the outcome
This solution trains models on your own data, checks every stage from data to decision, and is measured against the outcome it was built for. Because its predictive power is measured, it also shows the drivers behind the metric, so your team can fix causes as well as act on scores.
Why solutions hold upStart with one decision
Bring the problem and the systems your team works in. We scope the first solution with you, agree how its return will be measured, and run it in production with your people.